On the back of pick-up in private investment, structural reforms, normal rainfall forecast and rise in demand from advanced economies, India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at 6.5-7% year-on-year in the ongoing fiscal 2024-25, said the Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Lok Sabha on Monday by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
“….Considering these factors, the Survey conservatively projects a real GDP growth of 6.5–7 per cent, with risks evenly balanced, cognizant of the fact that the market expectations are on the higher side,” the Survey authored by Chief Economic advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran said.
The government’s report card ahead of the Union Budget noted that domestic growth drivers supported economic growth in FY24 despite uncertain global economic performance. It further said that improved balance sheets will help the private sector cater to strong investment demand.
The Survey however sounded a note of caution and said that private capital formation after good growth in the last three years may turn slightly more cautious because of fears of cheaper imports from countries that have excess capacity
The Survey noted that while merchandise exports are likely to increase with improving growth prospects in AEs (advanced economies), services exports are also likely to witness a further uptick.
“A normal rainfall forecast by the India Meteorological Department and the satisfactory spread of the southwest monsoon thus far are likely to improve agriculture sector performance and support the revival of rural demand,” it said.
The Survey stated that structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) have also matured and are delivering envisaged results.
The Economic Survey is presented a day before the Union Budget is one of the key economic documents of the central government. It consists of government’s economic performance in the previous year and also lists various policy initiatives.
