The recent 6.2 magnitude earthquake that struck Istanbul was a precursor to a stronger 7-7.2 magnitude quake expected in 2045-2075, Turkish seismologist Ahmet Ercan told Sputnik on Thursday.
“The earthquake on Wednesday was a warning of a 7-7.2 magnitude expected in the Eastern Thrace region or a kind of a warm-up before it. The source of a new earthquake will be at the same level, between 7 and 13 kilometers [4.3-8 miles] below the ground, but the shakes will be 22 times more powerful … According to my research, this big earthquake will occur, as I expect, between 2045 and 2075,” Ercan said.
Those Istanbul residents whose houses were built after 1999, when stricter construction regulations were introduced, and who are located on solid ground, should not be too concerned, the seismologist said.
The North Anatolian Fault stretches across the northern part of Turkey and one of its branches goes through the Marmara Sea near the coastline in Istanbul, putting the city at risk of experiencing powerful earthquakes. The city mayor’s office has estimated that a 7.5 magnitude earthquake may destroy at least 90,000 buildings, leaving 4.5 million people homeless, while the total damage may exceed $325 billion.
On Wednesday, Turkey’s disaster management agency said that a 6.2 magnitude earthquake had struck Istanbul, followed by aftershocks. Turkish Health Minister Kemal Memisoglu said that nearly 240 people in Istanbul had been injured in connection with the earthquake, mostly in panic-related falls from heights.
